Kolbe A. Dumas

Kolbe A. Dumas

PhD Student, Political Science

University of Houston

Public Policy · Methodology · AI Governance

About

I am a second-year PhD student in Political Science at the University of Houston, with concentrations in Public Policy and Methodology. My research examines how governments adopt, procure, and regulate emerging technologies—particularly artificial intelligence—across U.S. state bureaucracies.

My work draws on policy diffusion theory, causal inference, and computational methods to understand how administrative agencies navigate technological uncertainty. I am especially interested in the intersection of executive politics and bureaucratic implementation, exploring how gubernatorial signals shape downstream procurement behavior.

Prior to my doctoral studies, I earned a Master of Public Policy from Arizona State University and a Bachelor of Science in Applied Quantitative Sciences, also from ASU. My methodological training spans causal inference, machine learning, multilevel modeling, and applied econometrics.

Research

Working Papers

The Diffusion of Artificial Intelligence Procurement and Governance Across U.S. States

This paper examines how AI procurement instruments spread through state bureaucracies under uncertainty, focusing on imitation and competition as mechanisms. Using text similarity in RFP language and a technology-weighted spatial-ideological rival intensity measure, I analyze how gubernatorial agenda salience shapes instrument diffusion.

Bureaucratic Responsiveness to Technological Shocks: An ITS Design On the Release of ChatGPT 3.5

Using an interrupted time series design, this paper investigates how public bureaucracies responded to the release of ChatGPT 3.5—a major technological shock that fundamentally altered the AI landscape and forced rapid administrative adaptation.

Slate Size, Policy Caps, and Ballot Completion in Ranked-Choice Elections: Evidence from New York City

Using a Regression Kink Design, this paper investigates whether NYC's 5-candidate ranking cap affects ballot completion. Drawing on cast vote record data from the 2021, 2023, and 2025 NYC Council elections, I test whether the relationship between slate size and ballot completion changes once the number of candidates exceeds what voters can rank. Multilevel models with district-level random effects identify a structural break at the cap threshold, isolating the causal effect of the ranking constraint on voter behavior.

Executive Orders and the Bureaucratic Uptake of AI: A Staggered Difference-in-Differences Analysis

This paper examines how gubernatorial executive orders shape bureaucratic AI procurement. I classify state AI executive orders as either acceleration-oriented (encouraging rapid adoption) or constraint-oriented (imposing governance requirements), then estimate their downstream effects on procurement activity using the Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021) staggered difference-in-differences framework. The analysis tests whether executive intervention serves primarily as an enabling political signal or as a governance constraint that slows procurement by design.

Education

Expected 2028

PhD in Political Science

Public Policy and Methodology

University of Houston

2022

Master of Public Policy

Arizona State University

2021

Bachelor of Science

Applied Quantitative Sciences

Arizona State University